![]() ![]() I am highly skeptical that anyone could get meaningful results by attempting to model the behavior of every market participant.There are several instances where the author builds his own Monte Carlo simulation of the market, then concludes that a certain trading style is more profitable than another.The author puts far too much faith into Monte Carlo simulations.I felt like the book succeeded despite editing. ![]() ![]() The author makes a specific point in the preface about how he eschewed the advice of editors and felt validated by the sales of his book, but I noticed many instances that could be improved with editing.Wastes so many pages mocking financial authors and TV personalities.“Dow is up 1.03 on lower interest rates” when the percentage change is 0.01%, it’s just random noise and can’t be tied to a particular cause.e.g., Bayes’ Theorem as applied to medical testing.Contains many interesting examples of ways people typically derive meaning from random noise or misapply statistics:.Thinking Fast and Slow covers the same material with more depth and better writing. Reading it in 2018, the ideas feel neither novel nor original. While it was likely groundbreaking when it was published in 2004, its ideas have since permeated into the mainstream. The book contains many interesting examples of common biases and logical fallacies, but it’s buried in a lot of bluster and fluff about how smart the author is. ![]()
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